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A successful window and slightly above expectation start pushes the relegation odds from around 5/2 (28%) to 6/1 (14%). But a team floating between those odds can still expect to be relegated in three to five seasons.

Getting relegated and staying there is the biggest downside risk that the club faces.

What’s the right way to plan for that?

Old plan: make sure you can cut costs quickly

• Avoid long contracts
• Keep the squad size small
• Strict relegation contract clauses*

* First team players around peak age have rejected contracts to move to other Premier League clubs. Having finished around 17th-14th for a few seasons, non-negotiable relegation clauses could be a reason.

New plan: retain as much value in the squad as possible

• Very young squad
• Tolerate longer contracts for players up to peak age
• Take risks with buy-back clauses*

* It’s hard to predict how the buy-back clauses will play out. For simple financial planning the buy-back is roughly equal to a price-cap. If the Man City academy players are future £40m+ transfers, they won’t need to play through three full seasons at Southampton first.

Notes

• Players with a league appearance included, except Willy Caballero because he’s so old.
• Data from transfermarkt.