Most bookmakers and models say that the 17th-18th boundary will be around 38 points.

Southampton have from the first 22 matches: 15 points or 0.68 PPG.

So need from the remaining 16 matches: 23 points or 1.43 PPG.

How hard is that?

1.4 PPG is around 10th in the league, which not surprisingly is where the league average teams are. The current 10th placed team is Chelsea, with 1.41 PPG, +1 goal difference, -2 expected goal difference and +19 shot difference. Southampton will need to perform at Chelsea’s level for 16 matches, while applying enough of that performance at the most critical moments.

Perform around Chelsea's level to stay up

That makes the calculation simple. If Southampton can score more goals than they concede, they’ll probably survive. If they can’t, they’ll probably be relegated.

The red line needs to be above the blue line

None of that matters unless…

The new manager’s preferred goalkeeper starts saving shots at a league average standard too. If this doesn’t improve, the other ten players will need to perform at borderline Champions League qualification level.

This line has to bend up

Notes

• Leeds under Marsch from StatsBomb. Contains similar statistics problems to Southampton under Hasenhüttl.
• League forecast from FiveThirtyEight
• Other data from FBRef / Opta
• Data correct on 14th February 2023